Adviser: Find safe havens for investment dollars

Published 10:00 pm Saturday, November 17, 2012

Big-box stores, soft drinks and big oil can make the perfect life raft in a sea of doubt created by the current economy, a local investment adviser said.

Doug Ralston, president and chief investment officer of Trustmark Investment Advisors Inc., said the best safe haven is in companies in historically safe sectors.

“Domestic stocks — your high-quality, Dow-type companies with 3 percent dividends or better,” Ralston said after a speech to the Vicksburg Warren County Chamber of Commerce. “Your Walmart, your Johnson & Johnson, your Proctor & Gamble, your Coca-Cola, your Exxon.”

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Ralston supervises portfolio managers, relationship managers, securities analysts, traders, and other support personnel for the bank’s wealth management group, which manages more than $2.1 billion in assets.

His examples of safe stock bets came without an official endorsement, but were strong nonetheless.

“Johnson and Johnson floated a very large debt deal the other day and the interest rate that they paid was less than the federal government pays,” Ralston said. “So, they’re telling you they value Johnson and Johnson as a better credit than the U.S. Treasury. And secondly, they only had to pay 1 percent to float that bond issue.”

“I’m not recommending individual stocks, but the common stock of Johnson and Johnson pays a dividend of 4 percent,” Ralston said. “Sure, it’ll go down in value with market washouts, but if you hold it 10, 12 or 15 years you got an upside of the future value of the worldwide business of Johnson and Johnson.”

Retail sales fell three-tenths of a percent in October, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Most economists had expected less of a fall.

Ralston said results over the past three months show higher sales than expected, and, coupled with home values and the worth of most retirement plans rising for the first time since 2006, the economy is improving and most consumers will feel better now that the presidential election is behind them.

“How come you hadn’t heard of any of this? Because all we’ve been talking about is the election and the fiscal cliff,” Ralston said. “Those dum-dums on the left. Those dum-dums on the right.”

“It’s getting better,” Ralston said. “We’re not forecasting that growth is going to come back to barn-burning anytime soon, but the American consumer is doing better without the election uncertainty.”

Ralston stopped short of a firm guess on how talks in Congress on current tax rates set to expire and planned automatic budget cuts could affect the economy. Spending cuts, sure to be painful, should make up 85 percent of how the federal government should handle taxes and the budget — the so-called “fiscal cliff” — and, ideally, should come from entitlement programs, Ralston said.

“I realize I’m not making any friends when I say this, but that 85 percent in spending cuts has got to come from entitlements — Social Security, Medicare, food stamps. None of us want to give that up. But, on the other hand, none of us wants to pay for it.”