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COVID-19 model developed by ERDC debuts on CDC website

The U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center’s COVID-19 Modeling and Analysis Team (C-MAT) developed a COVID-19 model that debuted on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s website May 22.

The ERDC model, also referred to as the ERDC-SEIR (Susceptible Exposed Infected Recovered) model, is one of 16 models featured on the CDC’s COVID-19 model ensemble website at www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us.html.

The addition of the ERDC model as part of the ensemble marks the first instance a model developed and maintained by the Department of Defense has been included in the CDC ensemble. The ERDC-SEIR model is featured alongside others from several institutions from around the world.

The model predicts disease spread in the U.S. and provides information that supports planning for response actions. The ERDC-SEIR model results have been provided to federal, state and local partners to aid the nation’s leaders in making informed decisions to address complex challenges related to the COVID-19 pandemic.

“It’s been amazing to see the power that can be generated by uniting more than 30 public health scientists, mathematicians, physicists, modelers, computer scientists, and other disciplines under a common cause,” Dr. Todd Bridges, the ERDC Senior Scientist who is leading C-MAT, said.

The C-MAT partnered with representatives from the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Department of Health and Human Services to communicate findings to the CDC.

ERDC’s C-MAT members then coordinated with the Reich Lab to incorporate the ERDC-SEIR model predictions into the CDC ensemble. The results for each model included in the ensemble are routinely updated and the C-MAT will continue to provide results to the CDC going forward.