On the eve of the presidential election, Mississippi’s conservative streak appears to be holding — even in the face of a tidal wave of newly registered voters and tight polls in other GOP-friendly states.

Ditto for Warren County, which has favored the Republican nominee for president nine consecutive times dating to 1972.

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However, a 6 percent jump in voter registrations here over 2004 totals and a heavy turnout among Democrats in the March primary for eventual nominee Barack Obama have raised hopes for the Illinois senator — but not for a victory in Mississippi.

“It will close the gap,” state Rep. George Flaggs said. “Obama will fare well if turnout is high.”

Flaggs, Vicksburg’s longest-tenured public official and senior Democratic officeholder, predicted Republican John McCain would make it 10 in a row for the GOP in Warren County and win the state by about 12 points, less than Bush’s 16-point margin in Mississippi in 2004.

“Twelve would be significant for Obama,” Flaggs said, adding the sagging national economy will prompt some voters who normally vote Republican to support Obama.

Despite Obama’s small-to-moderate lead in several swing states, including some in the South carried by GOP presidential candidates for three decades, local Republicans like McCain’s chances.

“I think it will be closer than it’s ever been,” said District 1 Supervisor David McDonald, a Republican in whose district lies the Culkin precinct, the county’s largest. “But, I still think we will go Republican.”

Warren County has 36,957 names on poll books. Claiborne County rolls show 8,361, Sharkey 4,680 and Issaquena 1,646.

About 56.8 percent of the names listed in Warren County were marked as casting ballots in the 2004 election cycle, just less than the 58 percent nationally. Statewide, a little more than 1.1 million voted four years ago. Voter rolls in Mississippi stand at 1,893,786, a total greater by 189,817 since the beginning of the year. Calculating an actual turnout of eligible voters is difficult, if not impossible, because poll books contain hundreds of names of people who have died or moved since registering.

Other federal races in Warren County include candidates for both U.S. Senate seats and the 2nd District race in the U.S. House of Representatives.

U.S. Sen. Thad Cochran, a Republican, is opposed by Democrat and former state Rep. Erik Fleming. Sen. Roger Wicker, a Republican, is opposed by Democrat and former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove in a special election to fill the unexpired term of former Sen. Trent Lott. Musgrove is a Democrat and Wicker is a Republican, but their party affiliations will not be on the ballot because under state law special elections are nonpartisan.

While Cochran is expected to be a shoo-in for another six-year term, the Wicker-Musgrove race, marked by relentless television ads by the national parties and other interest groups, is considered a toss-up.

In the House race, U.S. Rep. Bennie Thompson, a Democrat, is opposed by Jackson teacher Richard Cook, a Republican. Neither has actively campaigned.

Flaggs predicted a Thompson victory here, which would duplicate the 15-year congressman’s primary win in March — his lone electoral triumph in Warren County since taking federal office in 1993.

“Bennie’s expanded his base here,” Flaggs said.

Judicial races include the District 1 Position 3 post on the Mississippi Supreme Court and District 2 Position 2 on the state Court of Appeals.

Incumbent and Chief Justice Jim Smith is opposed by Crystal Springs attorney Jim Kitchens and former Chancery Court Judge Ceola James of Vicksburg. Incumbent Leslie D. King is unopposed for the appellate post.

Local elections will include seats representing Districts 3 and 4 on the Vicksburg Warren School District Board of Trustees and five spots on the Warren County Election Commission.

For school trustee from District 3, incumbent Betty Tolliver is challenged by former bank executive Jim Stirgus Jr. In District 4, the candidates are former Vicksburg Mayor Joe Loviza, substitute teacher Katrina Johnson and land surveyor Kimble Slaton. Six-year terms for the school board are staggered.

Four are unopposed for spots on the election board, including former county supervisor Patricia “Petesy” Smith in District 1 and incumbents Retha L. Summers in District 2, John Rundell in District 4 and Gordon Carr in District 5. No candidate qualified in District 3.

In Issaquena, Sharkey and Claiborne, voters will make choices in the federal and judicial races, plus local races for coroner, school board and election commission.

Larry Clegg and Angela Williams, both independents, are vying for coroner in a special election to fill the final three years of former Issaquena coroner Sissy Boyd, who resigned in July. All candidates for election commissioner posts are unopposed, Jimmy C. Newman, Dale Heigle, Annie B. Johnson, Connie McQuary and Reid Monteith.

In Sharkey County, Melvin S. Young is unopposed for a seat on the school board in District 2. Kelly Perry, D.W. Johnson, Catherine B. Norris, Paul A. Alford and Mary Frances Smith are all unopposed for the election commission.

In Claiborne County, Josie McClorine is unopposed for a seat on the school board in District 5. Eddie Kinnard Sr., James Gray, Gary Knight, Johnny Hughes and Corey Johnson are all unopposed for the election commission.

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Contact Danny Barrett Jr. at dbarrett@vicksburgpost.com.

Warren county results for president

2004    **Bush 60%, Kerry 40%

2000    **Bush 60%, Gore 40%

1996    *Dole 48%, Clinton 45%, Perot 7%

1992    *Bush 50%, Clinton 40%, Perot 10%

1988    **Bush 63%, Dukakis 37%

1984    **Reagan 62%, Mondale 38%

1980    **Reagan 57%, Carter 42%, Anderson 1%

1976    Ford 58%, Carter 42%

1972    **Nixon 75%, McGovern 25%

**indicates statewide and national winner

 *indicates statewide winner

Note: Percentages are rounded to the next whole number. Third-party candidates John Schmitz in 1972 and Ralph Nader in 2000 polled more than 100 total votes locally but less than 1 percent of all cast.