To win a third term, incumbent Vicksburg Mayor Laurence Leyens will need almost every one of the 3,959 votes he received in the 2005 general election.

Tuesday, Vicksburg attorney Paul Winfield — a newcomer to seeking office but not to politics — posted a convincing Democratic Primary win — gathering 1,915 or 61.5 percent of 3,108 votes cast.

Winfield is an effective, well-known and well-funded challenger to the two-term incumbent, who showed he knows getting out the vote is the key to winning an election in Vicksburg where, for 16 years now, the pattern has been declining participation in municipal elections.

Winfield quickly picked up the endorsements of the three other Democrats on the ballot, Gertrude Young, John Shorter and Tommy Wright.

In addition to the downward trend in turnout generally, another factor on June 2 will be the absence of any other contests on the ballot. Vicksburg’s two aldermen are unopposed for new terms.

This much, however, is fairly certain: Both candidates already have their voters. In other words, very few voters will be swayed in the next three weeks and two days by any specific difference in the plans, programs or policies of the two men offering to serve as Vicksburg’s corporate chairman.

Winfield is young and energetic and has key familiarity with issues and has gained insights through his service as attorney for the Warren County Board of Supervisors and the town of Port Gibson, which he also has served as city judge. He’s also an officer for the state Democratic Executive Committee, which exists to develop and implement strategies for election of party candidates. He runs as the person of the future.

Leyens, a bit older than Winfield but just as energetic, no longer wears the mantle of the outsider, a factor that propelled him to victory in what was his first bid for elective office eight years ago. Now he has a record and although it’s a good one, he’s an aggressive progressive whose new ideas and approaches to the city’s challenges have doubtlessly offended some. As he often says, he has a personal style and approach that many find abrasive. If his past supporters stay home — as those of former Mayor Robert Walker’s did when Leyens was first elected — then there will be a change at City Hall.

Turnout is key. The candidate who does the best job of getting his voters to the polls on June 2 will get the job.